So when all is said and done, you hinging this thesis on the hope that a 1.3x base case return entices someone to buy something in a dying industry? That doesn seem like an appropriate hurdle rate to me, especially considering any potential cash burn, wind down expenses, or other liquidity needs that haven been taken into consideration yet. This is a melting ice cube that is just going to get worse, and its unlikely that the management team has any interest in liquidating the company. From a practical stand point, even if you thought that an activist could come in and help shut down the company the margin here is probably too small to acquire a large enough position where the return would still be worth it.
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